Sports: Small Market Baseball Fans Need an Education

Small market baseball fans are cute and all. They expect so much. They love their team.

But they're stupid.

Yes, I'm a small market fan. But I get it.

I get that I shouldn't expect the Brewers to make the playoffs every season. I shouldn't expect them to make it any season. If they do, it's an enormous success.

If you're a smart small market fan, you don't expect more than a .500 season. I use the word "expect," but most fans "demand" it.

That's foolish. When your team thrives on the success of its farm system and low cost/high risk free agents, you need to adjust your expectations accordingly.

So it's free agent season. What are we hearing out of Brewers fans?

Sign John Lackey! Sign another ace! Trade for an ace! Sign Prince Fielder to a long-term contract! The pitching staff sucks! Open your wallet!

Idiots.

John Lackey is not signing with the Brewers. Prince Fielder is as good as gone (two years left, max). The Brewers will bring in some new pitchers, but they will be mid level, once again.

[Note: They signed Randy Wolf and Doug Davis. As much as any fan could have expected.]

It's how it works in Milwaukee. It's how it works in most baseball towns. We're set up for disappointment. Those who get that have reasonable expectations. Those who don't, ask for the general manager's head.

During the past five years, only one team with a payroll in the bottom half has a record in the top nine.

During the past five years, only two teams with a payroll in the bottom half have a record in the top 14.

Only four of those teams have a combined record of .500 or better.

The Brewers, last year, had a payroll that was 16th overall. It's freaking Milwaukee, people. You can't expect more than that. In fact, that's the absolute most a rational person should expect.

They won 80 games last season. Some were disappointed. To be honest, they've done pretty well the past five seasons. They are one of those teams with a combined record over .500.

But if GM Doug Melvin doesn't spend big money, fans will be asking for his head. Because he's an idiot.

Apparently.

Spoiled. Spoiled because Melvin brought Milwaukee CC Sabathia in a deadline deal in 2008 that propelled the Brewers to the playoffs. Spoiled because now these fans expect a similar trade, signing and outcome every season.

Forget it. If you want to enjoy your team, first see baseball through the eyes of your team's general manager.

The Brewers still have a solid nucleus of talent. Young talent. Few teams can boast a better pre-free agency group of Prince Fielder, Ryan Braun and Yovani Gallardo. And Rickie Weeks, Casey McGehee, Alcides Escobar and Corey Hart ain't too bad either.

But filling the holes is a major problem. You can't fill every hole from within. And you can't fill those holes with proven veterans through free agency -- it will be too expensive.

So there's an awful lot of gambling going on. You roll the dice. You spend a little. You hope.

You hope for .500.

Or you can hope for John Lackey. Or whatever other ace is out there who will inevitably sign with the Yankees or a similar team [eh hem -- Red Sox].

You can hope that. But don't demand it. It's irrational. It's stupid.

Even a little cute.

Sports: Brewers and Twins Swap Enigmas

Today, the Milwaukee Brewers shipped former All-Star shortstop J.J. Hardy to the Minnesota Twins for 23-year-old center fielder Carlos Gomez.

While the list of reasons why the Brewers did not return to the playoffs this season is long, an item near the top has to be the performance of Hardy.

In 2007, Hardy was a major reason for the Brewers' fast start out of the gate, propelling his team to a 24-10 record. He was a surprise All-Star selection that season, and established himself as one of the game's finest hitting shortstops, batting .277 with 26 home runs and 80 RBI.

Before that season, however, Hardy was seen as a potential star, but not necessarily with his bat. He was an excellent defensive player, but his offense was an unknown. Maybe he'd hit. But with power? It was a surprise, to say the least.

Hardy nearly duplicated those All-Star numbers in 2008, batting .283 with 24 home runs and 74 RBI. So was Hardy still an offensive overachiever, or had he now established himself among the game's elite at the position?  The question seemed to have been answered.

But those questions resurfaced and multiplied in 2009 when Hardy could never get going. He was so bad (hitting .229 with 11 home runs and 47 RBI) that he'd eventually be optioned to the minors and replaced by rising star Alcides Escobar.

The minute Hardy was sent down was the minute we all knew his days as a Brewer were numbered. Escobar hit .304 and lived up to the hype. Hardy never recovered.

Meanwhile, Carlos Gomez of the Twins is reaching a crossroads. Though only 23, the luster on his "can't miss prospect" status is fading. Once the centerpiece of the trade that sent Johan Santana to the Mets, Gomez was the odd man out in a crowded Twins outfield.

Gomez is widely considered one of the fastest players in all of baseball, and his skills in the field cannot be denied. But he has yet to prove that he can regularly hit Major League pitching.

For the past two seasons, the Brewers have had Mike Cameron roaming center field. Though he has been a leader in the clubhouse and a productive player overall, he turns 37 in January and made $10 Million in 2009. He recently filed for free agency, and the cash strapped Brewers were not expected to resign him.

In Hardy, this is what the Twins get:

• 2007 All-Star
• Above average defender at the game's most difficult position with a canon for an arm
• 27 years old and turning 28 in August of 2010
• Two years until free agency
• Expiring 2009 contract of $4.65 Million that is likely to increase through arbitration this offseason
• A player who could repeat his 2009 performance and be a marginal Major Leaguer
• A player who could return to 2007 and 2008 form and be an All-Star
• No speed.  A negative that is rare for his position.

In Gomez, this is what the Brewers get (though, being a Brewers fan, there's quite a bit I don't know):

• Centerpiece of the trade that sent Johan Santana to the Mets
• One time top tier prospect
• One of the fastest players in baseball
• Raw player who has yet to show much offensively
• Impatient hitter who has an On Base Percentage below .300
• Speedster who had 30 bunt singles in 2009
• One of the game's finest defensive center fielders
• Despite his defensive abilities, unable to secure a starting job due to his offensive deficiencies
• At one time, projected as a five tool player whose offense would come last
• 23 years old
• Four years until free agency
• Making near league minimum

Make no mistake, neither team really knows what they're getting.  Hardy has at least proven he can be a star in the league.  Gomez is more the unproven player.

But at the same time, this is a deal between two small market clubs.  Salary and service time are important factors.  The Brewers may have done Hardy and the Twins a favor by demoting him at the end of last season, putting off his free agency for one more year.  He has two seasons with the Twins before becoming a free agent.

If Hardy is any kind of a player, he's unlikely to last more than two seasons with the Twins.  They simply won't be able to sign a desirable player at a high profile position.  This is one reason, Hardy's decline aside, the Brewers opted for the younger Escobar.

Hardy is also expected to make at least $5 Million this season.  His salary is unknown as he is arbitration eligible and made $4.65 Million.  Such a salary would be quite steep for a team like the Twins if Hardy repeats his 2009 performance.

On the flip side, Hardy wasn't needed in Milwaukee.  It was unfortunate for the Brewers that they had two star players at a position in demand, but one player's trade value completely withered away.  They save money with Escobar, presumably the better player, and aren't worried about filling that position for the next six years.

Meanwhile, it's a big risk to put an unproven player in center field and let the proven, though admittedly over priced and aging, Mike Cameron walk.

In Milwaukee, the general consensus seems to be that Brewers GM Doug Melvin could have gotten more.  They're disappointed that a one time All-Star could fetch little more than a light-hitting back-up center fielder.

Of course, that's short-sighted Brewers fans talking.

In Minnesota, fans are probably happy to get a former All-Star for an extra outfielder who had trouble reaching base.

Of course, that's short-sighted Twins fans talking.

As a rational Brewers fan, I'm ready for the Alcides Escobar era.  Is Carlos Gomez the answer in center field?  Maybe.  But at about $500,000, he's not much of a risk.

And if Gomez is the answer, he's on the team for four years at a very affordable price.

Might J.J. Hardy rebound and become a star again?  Maybe.  But I watched him almost every game last season.  He was lost at the plate.  Once a big Hardy fan (we practically named our youngest after him), I've lost faith in the guy.

In five years, this may look like a trade of two enigmas.  One prospect who would never become anything for a flash in the pan shortstop who passed his prime at the age of 27.

Or, one team may get fleeced.  I'm not going to claim to know which team won.  Let's see how it plays out.  But both teams had reason to make the trade.  Neither general manager was in the wrong for pulling the trigger.

But ultimately, both teams' fans will find something to cry about in 2010.

Sports: Yankees rebound, BUY a trip to the World Series

Warning: The following is written by a bitter small market fan. It is not intended to be especially rational or insightful. It simply reflects what many fans like him of teams that have little chance at postseason success think about the New York Yankees.

I just received an e-mail from MLB.com with the following subject line:

"Celebrate the Yanks 40th AL Pennant"

Unsubscribe.

It's a tired subject by now, not just from me but from other fans of small to medium market baseball teams. But, this time of the year, it bears repeating. While you can have some short-term success as a small to medium budget team, you have to be a big budget team to sustain that success. And only a big budget team can buy a trip to the World Series.

The Yankees did the latter.

The Bronx Bombers finished the 2008 season with 89 wins and no playoff appearance. Though they won more games than they lost, it was a colossal failure given their $222 Million-plus payroll. Not making the playoffs was inexcusable.

Meanwhile, my Milwaukee Brewers made the playoffs for the first time in 26 years. They did it on home grown talent (Ryan Braun, Prince Fielder, Corey Hart, JJ Hardy, Ben Sheets) and a shrewd midseason acquisition (CC Sabathia) that required having additional talent waiting on the farm.

After the season was over, the Brewers offered Sabathia a five year, $100 Million contract. The offer was modest considering what he was likely to command, and was possibly no more than a token gesture by the Brewers. After all, even a "low-ball" offer such as this was likely too risky long-term for the no-room-for-error Brewers.

Of course, the Yankees then swooped in and made Sabathia an offer he could not refuse of seven years and $161 Million. How could he refuse it? Rumor was that CC did not want to be a Yankee, but you can't fault him for taking the money.

The Yankees didn't stop there. They then "bought" first baseman Mark Teixeira at eight years and $180 Million. Not enough? Also went out and inked AJ Burnett for good measure at a price of $82.5 Million over five years.

Several levels of disgust here for the small to medium sized market baseball fan. Our team couldn't afford to sign one of those players without taking a major risk. The Yankees signed all three. Not to mention, any one of them could go down with a career ending injury, and the Yankees could still find a way back into the playoffs. Money wins.

So the Yankees bought three superstars and gained 14 wins and a spot in this season's World Series. The Brewers lost their ace (along with Ben Sheets, who they couldn't have afforded had he been healthy) and won 12 fewer games and didn't make the playoffs.

Again.

For a team like the Yankees, how many more wins is Sabathia worth over the alternative? They have the best offense money can buy. If they don't have Sabathia, they have another high priced arm. So how many more wins did he buy them this season? Six? Keeping in mind the Yanks also added the other two big named stars, you'd need to spread the 14 wins among three players (though the process is admittedly far from scientific).

Meanwhile, the Brewers were plugging in career minor leaguers and has-beens in place of Sabathia. How many wins did they lose as a result of not being able to sign him? At least 10, right? That's being generous. Pretty good argument can be made that they are a playoff team with him.

But signing Sabathia was never really an option for the Brewers. It never will be, barring a major change to the current collective bargaining agreement. And you can bet the house that they will never sign the equivalent of the Sabathia/Teixeira/Burnett trifecta during any offseason.

And why?  Did the Yankees earn the right to do what other teams cannot?  In good conscience, can you honestly say this is the case?  What did the other teams do to be punished and have to work with grossly different financials?

Gotta be honest. It takes a lot of fun out of being a baseball fan. I know that even if the Brewers win big next year by some miracle, they will not be able to keep their nucleus around. Prince Fielder is on the verge of his big payday soon, and he'll be on his way out. The team is currently built around a seven year contract (buying out only one year of free agency) for Ryan Braun. Even Braun will eventually be out of the Brew City.

According to ESPN.com, the Yankees had a payroll of $208,097,414 in 2009. The Mets, of course, were a rare example of money not being able to buy success, paying $145,367,987 for their roster failure (they finished with 70 wins). However, no team finished within $63 Million of the Yankees (to put that figure into perspective, six teams had total payrolls under $63 Million). All but seven teams had payrolls that were $100 Million or more below the Yanks.

The argument for the Yankees tends to be, "Yeah, but we have home grown talent, too!" Those players are as follows (salary in parentheses):

Derek Jeter ($21,600,000)
Mariano Rivera ($15,000,000)
Jorge Posada ($13,100,000)
Robinson Cano ($6,000,000)
Andy Pettitte ($5,500,000) - Although he left and came back
Melky Cabrera ($1,400,000)
Joba Chamberlain ($432,575)
Brett Gardner ($414,000)
Phil Hughs ($407,650)
David Robertson ($406,825)
Alfredo Aceves ($406,750)
Phil Coke ($403,300)
Francisco Cervelli ($400,000)

Were these guys home grown? Sure. But they could only retain Jeter, Rivera, Posada, and Pettitte because they have the money. My Brewers, who have an "average" payroll at 16th overall, could not have signed those players to keep them on the roster at the same time -- completely ignoring generously paid All-Stars like Alex Rodriguez, Sabathia, Teixeira, Burnett, and Johnny Damon who complement them.

Take away all players who have been free agents (those players making $10 Million-plus who most teams would not be able to retain -- or at least not be able to retain more than one or two of those guys), and you have:

Robinson Cano ($6,000,000)
Melky Cabrera ($1,400,000)
Joba Chamberlain ($432,575)
Brett Gardner ($414,000)
Phil Hughs ($407,650)
David Robertson ($406,825)
Alfredo Aceves ($406,750)
Phil Coke ($403,300)
Francisco Cervelli ($400,000)

Now create a roster around those players and another $90 Million.  Do the Yankees go to the playoffs?  Of course not.

So the Yankees still spent about $200 Million to "buy" their playoff roster. Their "home grown" guys who were never a threat to leave via free agency make up a small minority, and are not considered in the top-10 stars of the team.

How can it be allowed that one team has the capacity to buy $100 Million (at least) worth of players that others never could? Don't want to be the whiny kid with a wooden bat, but how is that fair?

It's sickening to me to think that one team can always fix problems by buying more players. One team can always recover from financial disasters by buying more players. One team can sustain success by buying more players.

A small group, to a much lesser degree, can buy a few players and patch holes. The others rely almost entirely on home grown, pre-free agency talent and mid-level free agents.

Being a Yankees fan must be sweet. Your team brings up a superstar. You love him. Favorite player. Buy his jersey. Put it on your kids. That player is there for life.

Me? I constantly battle with whether I should get myself or my kids too attached to any one player. Ryan Braun is the closest thing we have to a mainstay, but he'll leave one day as well.

Or does the fact that the Yankees can buy whatever they want set expectations so high that their fans can never appreciate success the way I can (not that I can ever expect to experience a World Series victory)? The Yankees are in the World Series? Of course they are. Anything less would be a failure. They win the World Series? Great! But you still gotta be ticked if they lose to a team with half the payroll, even if they are the defending champs.

Which begs the question: How good would the Phillies be with another $100 Million?