tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-264558542891751159.post49681555348876654..comments2024-02-13T05:15:36.680-07:00Comments on Tipping Pitches: Twins Ink Joe Mauer to Death SentenceJon Loomerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02420522401874605250noreply@blogger.comBlogger10125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-264558542891751159.post-61811803876914174322010-03-23T20:14:32.768-06:002010-03-23T20:14:32.768-06:00It's definitely a tough position in as a franc...It's definitely a tough position in as a franchise, Rachel. The Twins do have the advantage of moving into a new stadium, otherwise this move would be 10X worse. The Brewers are going through something similar with Prince Fielder. Fans expect the team to sign him, claiming the team has a better chance to win with him than without him. Of course, if they keep their current budget, this isn't true. It would leave less money for other players.<br /><br />Mauer can defer money, but I don't see that making sense until we're close to the end of the contract. You start deferring early in a deal and it sets the Twins up for a complete mess at the back end of the deal when it's most likely they are overpaying for his services. You've gotta pay the money eventually, so deferring just compounds your problems for later. In reality, I'd hope his deal is front loaded given that his surrounding roster is currently under priced.<br /><br />Thanks for the comments!Jon Loomerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02420522401874605250noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-264558542891751159.post-79876613894768975312010-03-23T19:50:28.426-06:002010-03-23T19:50:28.426-06:00If they twins have the chance to sign someone to s...If they twins have the chance to sign someone to stay competitive, can't he defer part of his contract? I'm not sure how that works, but I think Griffey did something like that when he was with the Reds.<br /><br />My guess would be that Twins fans would rather fail with the signing of Joe Mauer than fail because the team didn't sign him.rachelnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-264558542891751159.post-81344769258394069702010-03-23T17:46:29.378-06:002010-03-23T17:46:29.378-06:00It's pink! And until you update it again, it w...It's pink! And until you update it again, it will always be pink.<br /><br />Good points, for the most part. Wait, Barry Zito got traded? Not under his current, horrendous contract, he didn't. You may also want to check the history on Hampton, how hard it was to trade him, etc. And while players CAN get traded, look at the circumstances. The Brewers traded Bill Hall last year, but they are still paying almost all of his horrendous $8 Million contract this season so that he can play for the Red Sox. And they will never find a way to trade Jeff Suppan and his $12.5 Million contract.<br /><br />Granted, they aren't Joe Mauer, but I think you underestimate what bad contracts can do to a team. And given the enormity of Mauer's contract, he doesn't need to regress to Bill Hall territory for his contract to end up being one that no one wants to touch. Zito, Carlos Lee, Magglio Ordonez and Alfonso Soriano are virtually untradable. Not because they are horrendous players, but because they didn't play up to their huge contracts. <br /><br />Mauer is a catcher. He does have an injury history already (even if it's not significant), and the nature of his position can only exacerbate injury risk. If he does stay behind the plate (which is what makes him most valuable anyway), his decline starts sooner. <br /><br />While it may be thinking worst case scenario, you can't sign contracts without a back-up plan. There is no back-up plan if Mauer bombs. All that money spent on the new stadium is wasted, money available to field a competitive team is lost, fans stop attending the games, and the franchise crumbles.<br /><br />Again, the Yankees can make that move because they have a back-up plan if the contract becomes the Barry Zito equivalent. Most teams don't have that luxury. It's easy to say it's a great contract now, but a lot can change in eight years -- which may be the biggest problem with the deal.Jon Loomerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02420522401874605250noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-264558542891751159.post-65721409612774314052010-03-23T17:23:36.337-06:002010-03-23T17:23:36.337-06:00Hey, that's purple!
I think you're reall...Hey, that's purple! <br /><br />I think you're really overemphasizing the worst case scenario. How many in there great young hitters suddenly "lost it" in their prime? That is not a regular occurrence. Mauer is one of the best hitters of all time there is no reason to think he's going to bomb. And he's not a pitcher so it's less likely that injuries will greatly hamper his performance. Besides, even Barry Zito and Mike Hampton got traded. I wouldn't worry about the injury aspect. Making decisions based on the worst possible scenario is crippling. Yes, it's a risk, but that doesn't mean you don't make the decision to keep your best player and perhaps the greatest hitting catcher of all time, simply because it's possible it might not work out. <br /><br />And really what's your alternative? They traded Santana and got back a bunch of hot garbage. I would rather roll the dice with Mauer than some prospects especially considering the success the Twins have had with their own farm system.Ghostwriterxhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05884287253474767802noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-264558542891751159.post-28134870337470863952010-03-23T16:57:22.740-06:002010-03-23T16:57:22.740-06:00I think the real question is, what's up with t...I think the real question is, what's up with the pink blog?<br /><br />http://www.our2centz.com/blog/ghostwriter.html<br /><br />I always enjoy the perspective of big market fans. "Spend the money. He gets hurt, so what?" I guess I don't see how a large contract can't cripple a team just because there's no cap. The Twins have an imaginary cap. I don't know what that number is with the new stadium, but the amount of money they can spend on surrounding players just took a big hit. And if Mauer somehow bombs, it absolutely cripples the franchise. <br /><br />What you described is not the worst case scenario. It's one of the more likely best case scenarios. The worst case scenario is that he becomes injury prone and his salary turns into an albatross, making him untradable. <br /><br />Not every team is the Yankees!Jon Loomerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02420522401874605250noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-264558542891751159.post-26375363437603741572010-03-23T16:48:55.903-06:002010-03-23T16:48:55.903-06:00Looms what's all this talk about injury? I'...Looms what's all this talk about injury? I'm sure his contract is insured. And he's not a pitcher so the risk of long-term injury is minimal. If he suffers a career-ending injury insurance picks it up and they spend the money elsewhere. If he keeps getting beat up at catcher they move him to 1st and trade Morneau for more talent.<br /><br />And this isn't basketball where because of the cap a large contract can cripple teams for years. We've seen countless horrible contracts get moved in baseball. <br /><br />Really as far as risk go this is minimal. The worst case scenario is Mauer does what he has done the past few years and they still fail to contend in which case they can trade him to the Yankes/Sox/Mets in three years and reload.Ghostwriterxhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05884287253474767802noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-264558542891751159.post-6063359296843476122010-03-23T09:09:45.056-06:002010-03-23T09:09:45.056-06:00You know me too well, Charlie! It's true, I do...You know me too well, Charlie! It's true, I don't always see clearly as a Brewers fan. It's my handicap, just as I don't believe large market fans can ever see the game clearly. Ultimately, we favor what benefits us.<br /><br />I will say this about the Twins: Because they've been so savvy with the way they spent money in the past, they are probably the only team that could pull this off. That doesn't mean the move isn't risky. It doesn't mean that it ceases to simultaneously set a good and bad example for how small markets should behave.<br /><br />Relying on the profits from a yet-to-be-played-in stadium to pay for the third largest contract in baseball is risky. Toronto once built a new stadium and regularly sold out immediately after the shiny, space-aged retractable dome was opened. They haven't been in the top half of attendance in the past decade.<br /><br />Eventually, the shine will wear off on Target Field. For the Twins' sake, I hope it's more than eight years from now. But a new stadium only temporarily covers up the truth that the Twins are a small market team. And even a new, revenue-generating stadium won't help the Twins recover if Mauer suffers a serious injury. While it may be true that most teams would not recover from such an injury, it's exactly my point. Only the Yankees (and rarely, a handful of other teams) commit such money because they can actually recover if it doesn't work out.<br /><br />Really appreciate the comment, Charlie! You always challenge me.Jon Loomerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02420522401874605250noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-264558542891751159.post-15357060118211435682010-03-23T04:50:47.578-06:002010-03-23T04:50:47.578-06:00Seems to me they're changing strategies becaus...Seems to me they're changing strategies because their situation is changing. Target Field - in theory - gives them the leeway to spend more on the payroll.<br /><br />Maybe it's a questionable baseball decision -- and I'm not totally sold on that -- but from a business perspective, it's something they sort of had to do, isn't it? After spending all that money -- some of it from the taxpayers -- on a new building, how could they turn around and tell their fan base Mauer is too expensive? That'd be ticket-sale suicide.<br /><br />At some point in the future, Mauer moves to first base, and they either let Morneau walk or trade him.<br /><br />Seems to me you wanted Mauer to walk because you wanted the resulting protests to touch off a major change in baseball's revenue-sharing system or strengthen calls for a salary cap -- not because it would make more sense for the Twins long term.Charlie Zegershttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11922598891334247421noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-264558542891751159.post-62108719766842660462010-03-22T23:39:44.259-06:002010-03-22T23:39:44.259-06:00I appreciate the comment, trosy29, even if you dis...I appreciate the comment, trosy29, even if you disagree. What I don't understand is why the Twins feel the need to change strategies. As you've said, they've been very successful the past several years building from within and not spending money. This move seems to be motivated entirely by emotion. The third biggest contract in baseball? Incredibly risky.<br /><br />Maybe it will work out for them, but it's a bit crazy resting the success and future of your franchise on a single player. The Twins have been successful lately by doing the complete opposite of that.Jon Loomerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02420522401874605250noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-264558542891751159.post-9737686563385317152010-03-22T21:42:46.186-06:002010-03-22T21:42:46.186-06:00This is a horrible analysis..."Pressure is on...This is a horrible analysis..."Pressure is on the farm system." Are you serious with this statement? 25 of the players on the 40 man roster have spent their entire professional baseball career under the Twins organization. I think they will be just fine. <br /><br />They have signed extensions for many players over the last couple years. Baker, Blackburn, Span, Cuddyer, Morneau, Kubel, Mauer. That is a pretty damn good core to build around and contend. With one of the best farm systems in baseball, they will be just fine filling holes, or using prospects to acquire free agents where needed.<br /><br />Twins competed with payrolls of less then $60 million dollars. They will hover around $100-$110 million now with Target Field. $100 Million - Mauers $23 Million is $77 Million. They will still put a competitive team on the field for the duration of Joe Mauer's contract. Oh yeah, JOE MAUER will be on the team too...<br /><br />There is only 1 thing that will turn this into a so called death sentence...Career ending injury...that is the only risk...but a risk very much worth taking...trosy29noreply@blogger.com